10 years ago, I made a series of predictions about the future. A small handful came true. Most didn’t. Here’s the first instalment. Here’s the second. I got this one about politics right, and this one about education. Undeterred by being a shit incarnation of Nostradamus, I ploughed on and made the series a trilogy. What can we expect going forward?
1) Social Media will be more goal-orientated
You’ve probably stumbled upon this post through a link I posted on one of a few Social Media platforms. It’s dawning on a few millennials (myself included) that, although a little dabbling online here and there is good- certainly keeping in touch with friends has its benefits- mindlessly scrolling through Instagram, comparing yourself to strangers with better abs, is not the best use of your time. How do you break this habit? You replace it with another one. You keep busy with something else. For me, during most of the lockdown, it’s been reading. Keep my nose in a book, stay off Facebook. I’ll update my blog, and hence the rest of Social Media, when I’ve finished reading the pile. That’s the theory. The reality, of course is somewhat more taxing. These platforms are designed to be addictive. For me, reading is literally my way of fighting an addiction, an affliction that affects millions of us online. We’re all pretty conscious of the draw of social media by now. But, increasingly in the future, rather than ‘here’s my tea,’ posts will be more ‘here’s the latest noticeably good thing in my life.’ Promotions in work, a gym PB, and any other outstanding moments will be shared. Everything else won’t. As a result, only the best moments of people’s lives will be on show, strengthening an already poisonous narrative that people on social media have perfect lives. As the population of the UK grows, competition will increase. This won’t just be evident on social media, but in every part of life. Braggadocio will become the norm. The next generation won’t even grasp the concept of modesty. But all of that showing off will be done under tight controls- at the time it happens. People will then put the phone away. Being off your phone will become the status symbol that being on it was in the early 2000s.
2) Unsubscribing will no longer be taboo
Most people have over 100 Facebook friends. In real life however, you’ve really only got around 30 meaningful connections at any one time, including close family and friends. The rest, if we’re to be honest, are acquaintances. A few years ago I was talking to a psychologist about Social Media. She explained that the human brain can’t really keep track of groups bigger than 30. It’s a caveman-era thing. Being bombarded by info from all these hundreds of accounts- friends, news sites, journos, ‘influencers’- leave us blinkered and unable to keep up with the happenings in our genuine friends’ lives. That’s why I’ve unsubscribed from the vast majority of people on Facebook- I’m still ‘friends,’ as far as Facebook goes, but I don’t see their content and they aren’t aware. It’s only a matter of time before people admit to each other that they have unsubscribed- or that they figure it out for themselves.
3) Instagram Reels will flatten TikTok
The new feature on Instagram is Reels, 30-second videos usually edited together with voiceovers or music. These were obviously introduced as an answer to TikTok, a rival platform specifically for videos. Much in the way Instagram’s Story function has flattened Snapchat, the same will happen to Tiktok as Insta takes hold.
4) Instagram’s Swipe Up feature will roll out to everyone
One of the great benefits of rival platform Twitter is that you can share links to other sites within the tweet. This allows for bloggers and other site owners to share their webpage on the platform, and for others to share it with the ‘retweet’ function. Sadly, many people (certainly that I meet at events) have neglected their Twitters in favour of another platform. In contrast, the more popular Instagram allows all accounts to include a link in their bios- on the front page of their Instagram- and allows us all to share links via inbox messages. In the story function, featuring 30 second stills and videos, an account can link to another site using a ‘swipe up’ tool. To unlock this feature an account will need 10,000 followers. Over time, we’ll gradually see that benchmark drop. Having a 1000-follower minimum will create almost a 2-tier society within the platform, until it’s available to all.
5) Pickle will flatten Meetup
What is Meetup? Where have you been? I’ve been blogging about it for a decade. Meetup is a platform with the emphasis on getting people to meet people in order to do something. It’s an activity / events social media site. The page allows you- for a fee- to set up a group, and to describe to the Meetup community what you plan to do at your events. You can then accept members to the group, create events and meet these people to do the activity of your choice. All pretty simple… Until along comes Pickle. What is Pickle? Pickle is a new app, similar to Meetup and rival site CitySocialiser. It uses your location to find suggested activities that other members have proposed. It has a certain Tinder-like quality in that respect, but rather than a list of people to swipe on, you’re shown a map of your locale with the locations of the people suggesting activities. Near to me there’s a bloke looking for a gym mate to help him train. He’s also up for going for a pint. Down the road, on the way into Manchester, there’s a girl looking to ‘socialise and mingle.’ Unlike Meetup, there’s no proposed time or place, giving people a certain flexibility to arrange the events as groups. It might be a little other-world-y for some, but more and more of our lives revolve around the internet now, and try as we might to fight it, it sure is convenient. I can see this convenience, and the convenience of it being free to use (unlike Meetup and CitySocialiser) giving these rival sites a run for their money.
6) More bars and clubs will require ID
A growing number of Manchester’s bars and clubs use a visual identification system in which patrons are required to hand over their photo ID for scanning before being allowed entry. This is partly to check everyone is over 18, but I can hazard a few guesses as to why else. First, if everyone is ID’d, no-one can claim they’re being singled out. It’s not because you’re a guy. It’s not because you’re in a big group. It’s not because you’re black, or gay, or were speaking in your mother tongue in the queue. It’s indiscriminate. (Of course, this hasn’t stopped 16-year-olds blagging their way in with phoney IDs, so I don’t see that changing.)
7) Most bars will also require proof of COVID-19 vaccination
For venues hoping for large crowds, I can’t see anything other than this being a necessity. Criticisms of privacy- that medical information shouldn’t be passed on to businesses- are understandable, but health and safety of others trumps any potential breach of the Data Protection Act. As most people will get vaccinated eventually, people who want to play the anomaly will find themselves barred from a lot of busy places- nightclubs being a first. Of course, people will forget this, be barred from entry, and go ballistic at the door staff- even though this will have been discussed in TV news and through the clubs’ social media pages.
8) Thanksgiving will become popular in the UK
Partly due to the clusterfuck that is Brexit, the UK will become reliant on American imports, and along with their products, we’ll inherit some of their culture too. We’ve already seen Halloween become a huge deal, and due to social media, the UK will see Thanksgiving (post-pandemic) as another excuse to eat loads and see the family. Local food and drink outlets (mostly supermarkets, but also home delivery services) will be happy to oblige. Finally, we find we can relate to the characters of Trains, Planes and Automobiles.
9) Government-sanctioned competency tests will be introduced for parenthood
The Tories’ most divisive proposal will see Social Care play a bigger and more prominent role in society, without actually having the money to support it. Driven by a lack of funding, enforced birth control will come into effect, targeting the poorest and most vulnerable. Teenage pregnancies will drop further. They halved from 2005 to 2015. ‘Birth control’ will become a more literal term meaning sanctions for those without the finances / capability to raise children. Like that movie Fortress, except the Prison Director Poe (Kurtwood Smith) is played by a vacant, dead-eyed Matt Hancock. The public will largely support the move, wanting their taxes spent elsewhere.
10) Emergence of miniature wind turbines will come into effect
Travel through the south of England and you’ll see many houses adorned with solar panels. They can expect a good return on investment with this particular green tech, as Essex- for example- gets more than its fair share of sunny days. Here in Greater Manchester, we’re not so fortunate. But, particularly here in Oldham, we have more than enough wind. The whole of Oldham is on a hill, overlooking Manchester, which itself is on high ground (the Romans called it ‘Mamucium,’ or ‘breast-like hill.’) Across this city, and the nearby Pennines, we’ll see many miniature versions of the giant wind turbines that we see on the hills of Oldham and Yorkshire. The size of an old-fashioned weather vane, these are already on sale for less than £200, although higher prices will give you more conductivity. Expect the Big Six to take these into account in the next few years.
Let me know what predictions you have in the comments or on Social.
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